The Stagflation Threat Is Real, by  Nouriel Roubini Aug 30, 2021

 

        While these persistent negative supply shocks threaten to reduce potential growth, the continuation of loose monetary and fiscal policies could trigger a de-anchoring of inflation expectations. The resulting wage-price spiral would then usher in a medium-term stagflationary environment worse than the 1970s – when the debt-to-GDP ratios were lower than they are now. That is why the risk of a stagflationary debt crisis will continue to loom over the medium term.  

There is a growing consensus that the US economy’s inflationary pressures and growth challenges are attributable largely to temporary supply bottlenecks that will be alleviated in due course. But there are plenty of reasons to think the optimists will be disappointed.

 

 In fact, there are multiple factors behind this summer’s mini-stagflation. For starters, 

the Delta variant is temporarily 

    boosting production costs, 

    reducing output growth, and 

    constraining labor supply. 

Workers, many of whom are still receiving the enhanced unemployment benefits that will expire in September, are reluctant to return to the workplace, especially now that Delta is raging. And those with children may need to stay at home, owing to school closures and the lack of affordable childcare. 

 On the production side,
Delta is 

    disrupting the reopening of many service sectors and 

    throwing a monkey wrench into global supply chains, ports, and logistics systems. 

Shortages of key inputs such as semiconductors are further hampering production of cars, electronic goods, and other consumer durables, thus boosting inflation. 

 

 

For starters, there is the

     trend toward deglobalization and 

    rising protectionism, 

    the balkanization and reshoring of far-flung supply chains, and 

    the demographic aging of advanced economies and 

    key emerging markets. 

Tighter immigration restrictions are hampering migration from the poorer Global South to the richer North. The Sino-American cold war is just beginning, threatening to fragment the global economy. And climate change is already disrupting agriculture and causing spikes in food prices.  

Moreover, persistent global pandemics will inevitably lead to more national self-reliance and export controls for key goods and materials. Cyber-warfare is increasingly disrupting production, yet remains very costly to control. And the political backlash against income and wealth inequality is driving fiscal and regulatory authorities to implement policies strengthening the power of workers and labor unions, setting the stage for accelerated wage growth.

neoliberalismo e recessão econômica mundial,

Por: Bruno Santos de Moraes
 O termo “tempestade perfeita” é usado por alguns analistas para identificar diversos fatores negativos na economia que, juntos, culminam em uma recessão. Dentre os fatores que estão sendo identificados nesta quase inevitável recessão, prevista para o ano de 2020, temos:

• a insustentabilidade das políticas de estímulo fiscal feitas nos EUA no pós-crash de 2008;
• superaquecimento da economia norte americana com a inflação subindo acima da meta; 
• perigo de inflação também em outras economias do mundo, forçando os Bancos Centrais a também fazer ajustes monetários; 
• disputa comercial entre EUA e China, com medidas protecionistas do governo estadunidense, devem impactar crescimento econômico mundial; 
• analistas indicam também que, assim como no período pré-2008, a taxa de alavancagem dos EUA está muito alta, provando que Wall Street não aprendeu (ou não quer aprender) com o crash de 2008,

 já que os motivos desta próxima recessão são similares às daquele ano; há ainda uma crise política nos EUA, com um forte indicativo de abertura de processo de impeachment contra o atual presidente Donald Trump. Contudo, o fator mais preocupante desta nova recessão prevista é que os governos no mundo não serão capazes de fornecer ajuda financeira como feito em 2008, dado o alto nível da dívida pública dos países – o que pode tornar esta nova recessão muito mais intensa e duradoura.

Os efeitos sociais negativos do neoliberalismo em países subdesenvolvidos são conhecidos, e a “tempestade perfeita” seguida de recessão econômica mundial está sendo fundamentada na mídia internacional por analistas importantes. O que desejo expor aqui, então, é que não estou vendo nenhum alarde no Brasil sobre a relação catastrófica para a população das duas coisas acontecendo simultaneamente – neoliberalismo e recessão. No atual estágio de globalização que as nações compartilham, nosso país não pode se prender a uma “expectativa sem lastro” baseada em uma onda populista, restringindo os olhares somente aos problemas internos do nosso país sem verificar as questões externas que nos influenciam. É direito do cidadão brasileiro saber os riscos que corre.

Por: Bruno Santos de Moraes
 https://esquerdaonline.com.br/2019/01/14/neoliberalismo-interno-com-recessao-externa-a-cilada-bolsonarista/

 “Record 60 Cargo Ships Wait to Unload at Los Angeles, Long Beach” [Maritime Logistic Professional]. “A record 60 container vessels are at anchor or adrift in the San Pedro Bay, waiting to be unloaded at the Port of Los Angeles/Long Beach seaports and another 20 are due to arrive in coming days, a port executive said on Wednesday. With the pandemic still raging around the world, U.S. consumers have not fully resumed previous spending on restaurants and travel, yet they continue to splurge on goods ranging from appliances and home exercise equipment to sweatpants and toys. Volume at the Port of Los Angeles – the busiest U.S. gateway for trade with Asia – is up 30.3% so far this calendar year. 

"The global supply chain has been reeling due to
- overwhelming demand for cargo;
- temporary COVID-19 closures of ports and factories in Asia;
- shortages of
shipping containers and
key products like resin and computer chips;
- and severe weather.
Transportation costs have spiked, exacerbating delays and fueling product shortages. ‘Disruptions continue at every node in the supply chain,’ said Gene Seroka, executive director at the Port of Los Angeles.

Containers are waiting on Port of Los Angeles docks a peak of six days for truck pickup, Seroka said. Containers on chassis are waiting 8.5 days ‘on the street’ for warehouse space or to be returned empty to the port. There are nearly 8,000 containers ready to be whisked away by train, with the wait clocking in at 11.7 days, Seroka said.”

Brexit and and independent Nation State, adapted from Patrick Cockburn

as we stagger towards Brexit in less than a dozen weeks’ time, it is extraordinary that decision-making on so many issues directly affecting the daily lives of people living in Britain should be in the hands of corporations at home and abroad.
The ability of national politicians to regulate and, above all, tax these international entities is already low and will get considerably lower if Britain leaves the EU and is scrabbling for new investment post Brexit.
...
Opinion polls have long shown popular opposition to the privatisation of providers of essential services and utilities, but people seem resigned to the idea that everything from airports and pharmacies, to their electricity and water supply will end up in the hands of corporations and foreign investors over which the British government has only diluted authority.

...
The anti-Brexit forces made a disastrous mistake in treating the issue of the relations with the EU as if it was all about economics and immigration. Instead of treating the nation state and its history as slightly absurd and certainly outdated, they should have promoted the EU as a way of enhancing the power of the nation state by pooling sovereignty in order to re-empower individual EU members.

...
None of the British political parties have ever faced up to the question of how they would maintain Britain’s position as a nation state as it is hit by the all-embracing impact of globalisation.

the obsessive Brexit venture has prevented Britain taking those long-term measures necessary to secure its future as an independent nation state. (Patrick Cockburn)

https://www.independent.co.uk/voices/brexit-globalisation-nationalism-gatwick-airport-drones-army-take-back-control-a8711841.html