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373∆24 Brasil and the world in crisis (draft)

    Temas: Brasil and the world in crisis  ( draft ) Sumário: Miríade e Distopia   (2004-2024)  Em construção: Coletânea de Poesias -   draf...

quinta-feira, 30 de setembro de 2021

Why charter schools are not as ‘public’ as they claim to be

 

Professor, Education Policy & Law; Director, National Education Policy Center, University of Colorado Boulder

 

Proponents of charter schools insist that they are public schools “open to all students.” But the truth is more nuanced. As an education policy researcher – and as author of a new book about charter schools I wrote with fellow researcher Wagma Mommandi – I have discovered that charter schools are not as accessible to the public as they are often made out to be.

This finding is particularly relevant in light of the fact that charter school enrollment reportedly grew at a rapid rate during the pandemic. Specifically, according to the National Alliance for Public Charter Schools, enrollment increased 7% from 2019-20 to 2020-21. The organization says that is the biggest enrollment jump in a half-decade.

In our book, we identify and describe 13 different approaches that charters use to bring certain types of students in and push other kinds of students out.

Here are four examples from our book.

Unbiased. Nonpartisan. Factual.

1. Targeted marketing and advertising

By using specific types of language in their promotional materials and by targeting those materials to specific audiences, charter schools often send a message that they are looking for a certain type of student. This is a way for charter schools to reach or appeal to a certain audience but not others, which in turn shapes who ends up applying to a given school.

For instance, Mueller Charter Leadership Academy in San Diego told prospective families that “All eligible students are welcome to apply. However, it should be noted that because this is a highly advanced, demanding program, it may not be appropriate for everyone.”

Targeted advertising can also carry a message. LISA Academy in Little Rock, Arkansas, in 2016 sent out targeted recruitment mailers to area neighborhoods – skipping over the three zip codes for the heavily Black and Latino parts of town.

“They’re sending a message they don’t want the kids on the east side of town,” Max Brantley, editor of the Arkansas Times, remarked after his newspaper exposed the practice. The school later apologized and explained that its plan was to subsequently reach out to those populations through digital advertising.

2. Conditional applications

Charter schools sometimes require multiple essays or a minimum GPA as a condition for initial or continuing enrollment.

Roseland Accelerated Middle School in Santa Rosa, California, for instance, required applicants to submit five short essays plus an autobiography using “well constructed and varied structure.”

Minimum GPA requirements can be imposed at the application stage or once admitted. At Lushor Charter School in New Orleans, parents and students are asked to sign a contract that requires students to maintain a 2.0 GPA in core subject areas for continued enrollment.

3. Parents required to ‘volunteer’

Some charter schools require parents to volunteer a certain amount of time at the school, or pay money in lieu of volunteering. Pembroke Pines Charter High School in Florida, for example, required each family to complete 30 such “volunteer hours” per year, but allowed 20 of those hours to be “purchased” – US$100 total to buy out the first 10 hours and $200 more for the next 10 hours. These requirements place an additional burden, in terms of time and money, on families that are already struggling economically.

A white female teacher talks to a Black student in a hallway.
‘No excuses’ charter schools are known for harsh discipline. Monkey Business Images/Getty Images Plus

4. Aggressive use of discipline.

At so-called “no excuses” charters that “sweat the small stuff”, students have – at least historically – been subjected to harsh discipline for minor infractions, such as chewing gum or failing to constantly keep their eyes on the teacher during class.

Some of these schools repeatedly suspend students and call parents to leave work to pick up a suspended child. The most high-profile example is Success Academy charter school in Fort Greene, in the Brooklyn borough of New York City, where school leaders created a “Got to Go” list of 16 students who were then subjected to harassing discipline. In one case, a school official threatened to call 911 on a 6-year-old because the child was having a “bad day.” Nine of the 16 students did in fact withdraw from the school.

Functioning like private schools

Cumulatively, these and the other approaches we detail in our book – titled “School’s Choice” – make charter schools more like private schools than the public schools they claim to be.

These practices influence which students are admitted to charter schools and then stay in those schools. Charter school choice therefore affects schools’ demographics, including the degree to which they are segregated.

They affect funding equity as well, since state school-finance formulas often don’t adequately account for the actual costs of educating different students. In Pennsylvania, for example, charter schools are funded through a system that creates problematic incentives related to access for students with special needs. As explained in a report by the state’s bipartisan legislative Special Education Funding Commission, the current funding system provides charter schools “the same funding for each student with a disability, regardless of the severity of that student’s disability.”

“This creates a strong incentive to overidentify students with less costly disabilities and to under-identify (or under-enroll) students with more severe (or more costly) disabilities,” the report states. A speech impediment, for example, is an example of a mild disability, versus a student with, say, a traumatic brain injury, which is a more severe disability. As the report explains, “A student with a mild disability can be a financial boon to a charter school, given that the funding the charter receives will exceed the charter’s cost to educate a child.”

Notably, Pennsylvania’s funding system does not create these incentives for district-run public schools.

These practices also can play a decisive role for comparisons of academic outcomes between charters and traditional public schools run by a school district. Overall, research consistently shows little if any difference in the average test-score outcomes for the two types of schools. But the comparisons may not be fair and accurate. If charter schools can improve their test scores by screening out students they don’t think will do well, it can give them an unfair advantage in comparisons with public schools that accept all students.

Policy incentives revisited

So what can be done to make charter schools more accessible? One way is to change policy incentives such as the Pennsylvania funding system mentioned earlier. States can also change the way they reward schools for how well their students do on tests. Arizona, for instance, has policies that give extra funding to charters and other schools with higher achieving students.

In the final two chapters of our book, “School’s Choice,” Mommandi and I point to a future with charter schools that don’t screen or push out students who are lower achieving or more expensive to educate. First, we hold up examples of charter schools that have resisted the incentives to limit access by, for example, working to support their communities’ most marginalized students. We then offer a design for a healthier charter school system that doesn’t put these exemplary schools at a disadvantage when it comes to accountability and funding systems.

Even in a post-pandemic world, charter school enrollment may continue to grow. But until the public has more access, charters will not be truly public.

 

 Covid Is Killing Rural Americans at Twice the Rate of Urbanites

Yves here. This article points out that while Covid vaccination rates are lower in rural areas than in metro areas, it does not fully explain the much greater rural mortality rate. This article focuses on much poorer access to hospitals. Another which this piece ignores is that rural America is older. From a 2018 survey:

In the United States, 19 percent of the rural population is 65 years or older, compared with 15 percent in urban areas. Rural counties make up nearly 85 percent of the 1,104 “older-age counties”—those with more than 20 percent of their population age 65 or older.

I just came back from Bailey Island, Maine, where the median age of the year-round population is 60. And the winters are not nice!

How Putin Created the Russian National State
• September 28, 2021

In addition to affirming 

    the rights of Russian compatriots abroad, 

    Russia’s historical belief in God, 

    and the family as a union of woman and man, 

        the amended Constitution also alluded to 

    the thousand-year legacy of Russian statehood, thereby asserting 

    cultural continuity with the Russian Empire and explicitly 

    rejecting the joint Soviet-Western “noviop” vision of the Russian Federation as just a historyless shard of the Soviet Union.

 

Consequently, the Constitutional amendment became the base to what has become a comprehensive embrace of the mainstream Russian nationalist program.

In April 2017, I had defined its three key principles as follows:

  1. The cessation of political prosecutions for “hate speech” under Article 282.
  2. An end to mass immigration from Central Asia.
  3. The regathering of the Russian lands, including Belorussia, North Kazakhstan, Novorossiya, and Malorossiya.

All of them have essentially been fulfilled.

 

quarta-feira, 29 de setembro de 2021

ethical Travel: unsolvable paradoxes

 

 As a professor of religion, psychology and culture, I study experiences that lie at the intersection of all three. And in my research on travel, I’m struck by its unsolvable paradoxes: Many of us 

- seek to get away, in order to be present; 

- we speed to destinations, in order to slow down; 

- we may care about the environment, but still leave carbon footprints. 

 

Ultimately, many people hope to return transformed. Travel is often viewed as what anthropologists call a “rite of passage”: structured rituals in which individuals separate themselves from their familiar surroundings, undergo change and return rejuvenated or “reborn.”

meaningful travel is best understood not as a three-stage rite but as a six-phase practice, based on core human experiences. These phases can repeat and overlap within the same journey, just as adventures twist and turn.

 

antecipating

leaving

surrendering

meeting (cultural humility)

caring (solidarity)

returning (disorienting experience)


I believe that reflecting on these six phases can invite the kind of mindfulness needed for transformative, ethical travel. And amid a pandemic, the need for thoughtful travel that prioritizes host communities’ well-being is clear.


 

highest impact in reducing food waste,

Our research identified the three top behaviors with the highest impact in reducing food waste, which are also relatively easy to implement:

  • Prepare a weekly meal at home that combines food needing to be used up
  • Designate a shelf in the fridge or pantry for foods that need to be used up
  • Before cooking a meal, check who in the household will be eating, to ensure the right amount is cooked.

Despite these actions being relatively easy, we found few Australian consumers had a "use it up" shelf in the fridge or pantry, or checked how many household members will be eating before cooking a meal. 

Experts considered a weekly "use-it-up" meal to be the most effective behavior in reducing food waste. Many consumers reported they already did this at home, but there is plenty of opportunity for others to adopt it.

Some consumers are more advanced players who have already included the above behaviors in their usual routines at home. So for those people, our research identified a further three behaviors requiring slightly more effort:

  • Conduct an audit of weekly food waste and set reduction goals
  • Make a shopping list and stick to it when shopping
  • Make a meal plan for the next three to four days.

Our research showed a number of actions which, while worthwhile for many reasons, experts considered less effective at reducing food waste. They were also less likely to be adopted by consumers. The actions included:

  • Preserving perishable foods by pickling, saucing or stewing for later use
  • Making a stock of any food remains (bones and peels) and freeze for future use
  • Buying food from local specialty stores (such as greengrocers and butchers) rather than large supermarkets.

Doing our bit

 

 airborne virus transmission

"properly fitting masks, 

moving our interactions outdoors, 

and improving our indoor air through ventilation upgrades (including easy solutions like 

opening windows and doors) and 

air filtration."

“Canada’s culture of silence on airborne virus transmission leaves many confused on how to best avoid infection” [Toronto Star]. “[M]any of our infectious disease and public health specialists — including our chief medical officers of health — seem to be unable to say the word ‘airborne’ or ‘aerosol’ out loud, and instead continue to emphasize measures such as deep cleaning and plexiglass panels…. Canada’s top public health organization, the Public Health Agency of Canada (PHAC), has produced strong, unbiased summaries of the evidence for airborne transmission…. But these summaries are very hard to find. They are not posted publicly, and PHAC has specifically requested that the reviews not be shared. In order to receive a copy, you first have to discover its existence, find the title and email PHAC for a copy. Evidently, our public health leaders have also not seen these documents, as they consistently dismiss the evidence. As such, Canadians remain confused as to the best methods of avoiding transmission. The focus is still on the neverending cleaning of surfaces and putting up splash guards (which are ineffective against airborne particles), instead of using properly fitting masks, moving our interactions outdoors, and improving our indoor air through ventilation upgrades (including easy solutions like opening windows and doors) and air filtration."

crise energética e racionamento

 
Existem duas causas até agora que são as mais prováveis. Uma é a mudança no regime hídrico, particularmente na região do centro-oeste e sudeste com a mudança do clima global. Os modelos de cenários climáticos globais rodados pelo mundo, em centros de pesquisas, indicam que o modelo de chuvas, uma parte no Brasil, vai diminuir com o aumento da temperatura global média. 

E tem um outro fator, desta vez local, que é o desmatamento. Na medida em que aumenta o desmatamento na Amazônia e particularmente no Cerrado há a redução de água chegando nesses reservatórios. No caso da Amazônia os rios voadores.



O que deveria ter sido feito... A única maneira de atuar de forma mais consequente é trabalhar tanto no lado da oferta quanto no lado da demanda. Já deveria ter um programa que incrementasse bastante o aumento de eficiência energética para as pessoas poderem produzir as mesmas coisas com menos energia. E, no caso mais extremo, tem que racionar a energia. 


Por exemplo, o principal consumidor em residências é o ar condicionado, que é extremamente ineficiente no Brasil se comparado com o que tem disponível no mercado e em outros países. Então poderia ter um programa grande para eliminar o ar condicionado ineficiente e forçar a colocação de equipamentos mais eficientes. 

O consumo residencial é importante, porque consome 31% de toda a eletricidade. Depois vem a indústria que hoje gira em torno de 28%. E dentro de indústrias, principalmente nas médias e pequenas indústrias, também podem ter um aumento grande de eficiência.



política de preço do petróleo

"“Muitos especialistas dizem que não é possível calcular o valor do combustível a partir apenas do custo de produção da Petrobras, independentemente do preço internacional, porque a empresa importa barris do Brent e exporta o petróleo retirado do pré-sal, que seria de qualidade inferior”, explica o professor."
 https://www.otempo.com.br/economia/petrobras-poderia-ter-outra-politica-de-precos-especialista-explica-1.2548330#:~:text=%E2%80%9CMuitos%20especialistas%20dizem%20que%20n%C3%A3o%20%C3%A9%20poss%C3%ADvel%20calcular%20o%20valor%20do%20combust%C3%ADvel%20a%20partir%20apenas%20do%20custo%20de%20produ%C3%A7%C3%A3o%20da%20Petrobras%2C%20independentemente%20do%20pre%C3%A7o%20internacional

terça-feira, 28 de setembro de 2021

 

“Cabal Anthropology – or whether the anthropology of belief helps us understand conspiracism” [Focaal Blog]. “Let me come back to the question of “Why people believe this stuff”?…. Anyone who has argued with a conspiracy theorist, a religious zealot or political true believer of any kind knows that refutation of their evidence is fruitless. You point out contrary facts or illogical arguments and your remarks are simply cast aside as irrelevant or confirmation of the conspiracy. This is because the conspiratorial narrative is in fact an expression of belief. I decided to re-read a bunch of anthropological analyses of belief…. If we are to understand conspiratorial movements like QAnon or those following the Deep State conspiracy, we anthropologists need to promote our own insights about what belief is all about. While Needham argued that the concept of belief was useless for anthropology, we still need to explain what it means to be a believer. We need to go beyond the conventional wisdom that every conspiracy theorist suffers from some kind of cognitive deficiency, emotional damage or social isolation. The leaders and mobilizers may be emotional, committed, even fanatic (as so many leaders of social movements are), but the followers and adherents are much more like us than we’d like to admit. Resorting to a psychological explanation is not sufficient. Who among us has not suffered from anxiety, depression, loneliness or a traumatic event that might lead us to fall down the proverbial rabbit hole? Who among us has not spent hours on line immersed in some incessant search to solve a puzzle? The conspiracy followers are hardly exotic. Take away their beliefs, and they suddenly become just like us, ordinary men and women with family obligations, precarious jobs, worried about their future and their place in it. They are both strange and familiar at the same time. And it is this contrast that makes them the perfect object of anthropological scrutiny. The task of anthropology, after all, is to show that the strange is actually familiar, and that the familiar has its exotic elements. We need more cabal anthropology.” • More research needed!

acclimation - elevated global temperatures reduce the rate of photosynthesis and plant growth.


 ne of the cruelties of global warming is that high concentrations of CO2 combined with elevated global temperatures reduce the rate of photosynthesis and plant growth. These effects are called “acclimation” and “heat stress” of plants, respectively.

Acclimation is either an enhancing or inhibiting effect on photosynthesis by high CO2 concentrations. Generally, photosynthesis is enhanced as CO2 concentration is increased from a low level. Then above an elevated threshold concentration, the rate of photosynthesis saturates and can even be reduced. The mechanism of the effect is involved and has been the subject of research for many years by agricultural scientists interested in maximizing crop yields (for example in greenhouses).

 ...

Current research on plant growth under the combined effects of elevated temperature and high CO2 concentration shows that “in heat-stressed plants at normal or warmer growth temperatures, high CO2 may often decrease, or not benefit as expected, tolerance of photosynthesis to acute heat stress. Therefore, interactive effects of elevated CO2 and warmer growth temperatures on acute heat tolerance may contribute to future changes in plant productivity, distribution, and diversity.”

 

segunda-feira, 27 de setembro de 2021

 

Virtual reality affects children differently than adults

 

Children who eat more fruit and vegetables have better mental health

Children who ate a traditional breakfast experienced better wellbeing than those who only had a snack or drink. But secondary school children who drank energy drinks for breakfast had particularly low mental wellbeing scores, even lower than for those children consuming no breakfast at all.


Children who eat a better diet, packed with fruit and vegetables, have better mental wellbeing—according to new research from the University of East Anglia.

A new study published today is the first to investigate the association between fruit and vegetable intakes, breakfast and lunch choices, and in UK school children.

It shows how eating more fruit and veg is linked with better wellbeing among secondary school pupils in particular. And children who consumed five or more portions of fruit and veg a day had the highest scores for mental wellbeing.

"While the links between nutrition and physical health are well understood, until now, not much has been known about whether nutrition plays a part in children's emotional wellbeing. So, we set out to investigate the association between dietary choices and mental wellbeing among schoolchildren."

The research team studied data from almost 9,000 children in 50 schools across Norfolk (7,570 secondary and 1,253 ) taken from the Norfolk children and Young People's Health and wellbeing Survey.

 

Children involved in the study self-reported their dietary choices and took part in age-appropriate tests of mental wellbeing that covered cheerfulness, relaxation, and having good interpersonal relationships.

Prof Welch said: "In terms of nutrition, we found that only around a quarter of secondary-school children and 28 percent of primary-school children reported eating the recommended five-a-day fruits and vegetables. And just under one in ten children were not eating any fruits or vegetables.

"More than one in five secondary school children and one in 10 primary children didn't eat breakfast. And more than one in 10 secondary school children didn't eat lunch.

The team looked at the association between nutritional factors and mental wellbeing and took into account other factors that might have an impact—such as and home situations.

Dr. Richard Hayhoe, also from UEA's Norwich Medical School, said: "We found that eating well was associated with better mental wellbeing in children. And that among secondary school children in particular, there was a really strong link between eating a nutritious diet, packed with fruit and vegetables, and having better mental wellbeing.

"We also found that the types of breakfast and lunch eaten by both primary and secondary school pupils were also significantly associated with wellbeing.

"Children who ate a traditional breakfast experienced better wellbeing than those who only had a snack or drink. But secondary school children who drank energy drinks for breakfast had particularly low mental wellbeing scores, even lower than for those children consuming no breakfast at all.

"Another interesting thing that we found was that nutrition had as much or more of an impact on wellbeing as factors such as witnessing regular arguing or violence at home.

Prof Welch said: "As a potentially modifiable factor at an individual and societal level, nutrition represents an important public health target for strategies to address childhood mental wellbeing.

"Public health strategies and school policies should be developed to ensure that good quality nutrition is available to all children both before and during in order to optimize mental wellbeing and empower to fulfill their full potential."

"Cross-sectional associations of schoolchildren's and vegetable consumption, and meal choices, with their mental : a cross-sectional study" is published in the journal BMJ Nutrition, Prevention & Health.

Pfizer booster shot (teachers)

The FDA instead limited its authorization of the third Pfizer dose to
people 65 and older,
people ages 18-64 at high risk of severe COVID-19 due to pre-existing conditions, and
individuals with frequent risk of exposure to the coronavirus through their work, such as
    health care workers and 

    teachers. 

 

“As CDC Director, it is my job to recognize where our actions can have the greatest impact. At CDC, we are tasked with analyzing complex, often imperfect data to make concrete recommendations that optimize health. In a pandemic, even with uncertainty, we must take actions that we anticipate will do the greatest good,” Walensky said in a statement.

 

 

German Politics -

How Centuries Old Local Differences Still Influence German Politics, by moonofalabama

The German federal election results did not surprise much. What they do show though are the long term effects of geographic-demographic-political idiosyncrasies.

Here are the general election results for each party and the potential coalitions they could form in parliament to create a government. Voter participation was a still healthy 77%.


bigger

Some explanations:

  • The Social-democrats (SPD) are the left of center mainstream party. They won new voters from the other side of the center as well as from the left (Linke). Their candidate for chancellor, the centrist Olaf Scholz, will likely lead the next government.
  • The Christian Union (CDU + the Bavarian CSU) are the right of center mainstream party. They lost due to several recent corruption scandals as well as for presenting the gaffe prone Armin Laschet as chancellor candidate.
  • The Greens are, well, camouflage green as they are pro-NATO Atlanticists. A few month ago they were artificially hyped as potential leading party but deflated over unexplained exaggerations in their main candidate's vita and a too unrealistic environmental program.
  • The FDP are economic liberals who are at times trending towards libertarian.
  • The AFD are right to very right wing 'alternative' conservatives. There losses are due to their anti-lockdown and anti-vaccine positions.
  • The Left (Linke) is nominally socialist. Over the last two years their leadership has emphasized 'wokeness' instead of socialism which led to a loss of their long term supporters.

The previous government under Chancellor Merkel was a black-red coalition of the Union parties and the Social-democrats.

sábado, 25 de setembro de 2021

post truth - Glenn Greenwald and Iowa’s latest WTF Moments

 

 little noxious nugget buried deep in Greenwald’s essay:

“all of this stopped being about The Science™ long ago — ever since months of relentless messaging that it is our moral duty to Stay At Home unless we want to sociopathically kill Grandma was replaced overnight by dictates that we had a moral duty to leave our homes to attend densely packed street protests since the racism being protested was a more severe threat to the public health than the global COVID pandemic.”

Please note four subtle and pernicious things here: 

the revolting ageist dissing of concern for the special vulnerabilities of old people (“Grandma”); 

the pandemo-fascist-bootlicking dissing of consensus epidemiological and public health science (derided as “The Science™”); 

the sick, Tuckems-style white boy suggestion that it was hypocritically pandemicist for George Floyd protesters to take to the streets en masse in 2020 (that suggestion is bullshit since the protests were outdoors and heavily masked and did not in fact function as covid-spreaders); 

and the revolting implied disregard shown for the critical importance of systemic and murderous white racism as an social and political issue, consistent with 

    his curious alignment with the white-nationalist neofascist Donald Trump and the January 6th marauders in their purported struggle with “the deep state.”

(This is consistent also with how Greenwald broke into the public eye many years ago – as the lawyer for Illinois Nazi leader Matt Hale.)

 https://www.counterpunch.org/2021/09/17/glenn-greenwald-and-iowas-latest-wtf-moments/ 


As the prolific left political scientist and media critic Anthony DiMaggio recently wrote me:

Some of Greenwald’s right-wing giveaways:

Attacking the Democrats as fascist and Orwellian while denying that white supremacy and fascism is a real thing on the American right. This is just monstrous and deplorable, but, hey, he made his bones defending Nazis, so that’s what he does.

He’s on my (left) side? Really? I don’t ally with white supremacists, the GOP, Nazis, and carry water for a fascist-denying, climate-denying, arch-plutocratic GOP. His opposition to NSA spying was almost 10 years ago. He can’t sit on his laurels forever. His appeal to the left has to be about more than that. If that’s it, plus all the normalizing of rightwing neofascist politics he’s been doing, it’s a sad state of affairs. And now he’s channeling GOP talking points with all the [anti-] mask stuff and [ripping on] AOC. He talks shit about her and not wearing masks at a gala, but says nothing about pandemofascists like Greg Abbot, Ron DeSantis, and Trump. You can’t do that and be taken seriously on the left, or what passes for it.

Where is GG’s attack on the GOP for the anti-CRT Orwellian spying on teachers in the classroom stuff? He has literally ZERO, ZERO to say that is critical of the GOP. All he does is attack Dems. Because that’s what Fox wants. That makes him a Republican. “Glenn Greenwald is a Republican Because FOX News Signs for His Checks.” That’s your headline right there.

 

https://www.counterpunch.org/2021/09/24/glenn-greenwald-is-not-your-misunderstood-left-comrade/

quinta-feira, 23 de setembro de 2021

 Supply Chain: “Americans Have No Idea What the Supply Chain Really Is” [The Atlantic]. “Everyday life in the United States is acutely dependent on the perpetual motion of the supply chain, in which food and medicine and furniture and clothing all compete for many of the same logistical resources. As everyone has been forced to learn in the past year and a half, when the works get gummed up—when a finite supply of packaging can’t keep up with demand, when there aren’t enough longshoremen or truck drivers or postal workers, when a container ship gets wedged sideways in one of the world’s busiest shipping lanes—the effects ripple outward for weeks or months, emptying shelves and raising prices in ways that can seem random. All of a sudden, you can’t buy kettlebells or canned seltzer. All of this was supposed to be better by now…. Overseas shipping is currently slow and expensive for lots of very complicated reasons and one big, important, relatively uncomplicated one: The countries trying to meet the huge demands of wealthy markets such as the United States are also trying to prevent mass-casualty events.” 

 

“Infection-prevention measures have recently closed high-volume shipping ports in China, the country that supplies the largest share of goods imported to the United States. In Vietnam and Malaysia, where workers churn out products as varied as a third of all shoes imported to the U.S. and chip components that are crucial to auto manufacturing, controlling the far more transmissible Delta variant has meant sharply decreasing manufacturing capacity and reducing manpower at busy container ports.” •

 Climate Change “We Should Shame Frequent Fliers” [Jacobin].
“What is good for the American tourist is terrible for the planet. At the height of the pandemic, the grounding of air travel in 2020 led to a 60 percent reduction in carbon dioxide emissions from aviation. One round-trip flight across the Atlantic emits about as much carbon dioxide as heating an average American home with natural gas for a year. And Americans are disproportionately to blame. Prior to the pandemic year, the United States, with just over 4 percent of the world’s population, was responsible for 24 percent of all emissions from passenger flights. And within the US, just 12 percent of adults take 68 percent of the flights. With planes once again ferrying Americans to ostensibly exotic locales, tourists are back to mucking up the planet in the middle of a climate disaster…
While the elite tourist should be the primary target, even those who aren’t racking up frequent flier miles should avoid unnecessary air travel. To justify their jaunts, American tourists will go on and on about

the opportunity to experience new cultures,
meet new people,
and contribute to the local economy of waiters, cab drivers, and tour guides….

Once upon a time, when people traveled infrequently and stayed at places for long periods of time, it made more sense to think of tourism as a moral good, as something that could actually accomplish its stated goals of

meeting people and
learning about new cultures without unduly harming the earth.

In those days, nobody zipped off 

to Vail for a weekend of skiing or
to Paris for a four-day birthday trip,

the sort of travel that’s common among today’s wealthy cosmopolites. As climate change foments weather disasters and threatens to make one in three plant and animal species extinct, the planet can no longer accommodate such indulgent sightseeing.”

 Manufacturing: “Boeing lifts China jet demand estimate over two decades to $1.47 trln” [Reuters]. “Chinese airlines will need 8,700 new airplanes through 2040, 1.2% higher than its previous prediction of 8,600 planes made last year. Those would be worth $1.47 trillion based on list prices, the U.S. planemaker said in a statement."

Nakedcaptalism commet
    First, I think Mother Nature may have something to say about aircraft travel projections.
    Second, the assumption is that former national champion Boeing can take advantage of the demand. That in turn assumes they get their manufacturing, software engineering, and development programs back on track. None of that is a lock, especially given Boeing’s
finance-oriented board,
pencil-necked,
union-hating management,
and justifiably disgruntled workforce.
    Third, at some point China’s going to have climbed the learning curve on aircraft manufacturing and started coming down the other side. By 2040? I would say obviously. 

    Finally, geopolitics. Get it together, Boeing!

quarta-feira, 22 de setembro de 2021

 “File Not Found” [The Verge].
The deck: “A generation that grew up with Google is forcing professors to rethink their lesson plans.” “Catherine Garland, an astrophysicist, started seeing the problem in 2017. She was teaching an engineering course, and her students were using simulation software to model turbines for jet engines. She’d laid out the assignment clearly, but student after student was calling her over for help. They were all getting the same error message: The program couldn’t find their files. Garland thought it would be an easy fix. She asked each student where they’d saved their project. Could they be on the desktop? Perhaps in the shared drive? But over and over, she was met with confusion. “What are you talking about?” multiple students inquired. 

Not only did they not know where their files were saved — they didn’t understand the question. Gradually, Garland came to the same realization that many of her fellow educators have reached in the past four years: the concept of file folders and directories, essential to previous generations’ understanding of computers, is gibberish to many modern students. Professors have varied recollections of when they first saw the disconnect. But their estimates (even the most tentative ones) are surprisingly similar. It’s been an issue for four years or so, starting — for many educators — around the fall of 2017.” •

Reconciliation bill -corporation taxes - 39% (2016) - 21% (2021)

  “$3.5 Trillion Is Not a Lot of Money” [Eric Levitz, 
New York Magazine].

What about its implications for taxes? Just how ‘painful’ are the leadership’s proposed revisions to the tax code? Well, the reconciliation bill would raise the corporate tax rate from 21 percent to 26.5 percent. For context, before Donald Trump took office, America’s top corporate rate was roughly 39 percent. In 2012, Mitt Romney campaigned on lowering that rate to 25 percent. So the Democratic leadership’s preferred corporate rate is a hair to the left of a Utah Republican’s and much to the right of the last Democratic president’s. As for individual income taxes, the reconciliation bill would cut taxes for the roughly 90 percent of American households who earn less than $200,000 a year. It would, however, raise the top income tax rate all the way to … where it was under Barack Obama.” •

terça-feira, 21 de setembro de 2021

 “Revenge bedtime procrastination: A plight of our times?” [Medical News Today]

" the less enjoyable things a person could do during the day, the likelier it was that they would try to reclaim that time at night and engage in the more pleasurable activities they had not been able to do during the day. ‘One of the significant causes of revenge sleep procrastination is where our current working culture intersects with our personal and leisure time expectations in our p.m. bookend,’ Chambers told MNT.”

13/09/2021 Obesity primary cause: not overeating, but "excessive consumption of [processed; ultra processed] foods with a high glycemic load", 

"the carbohydrate-insulin model lays much of the blame for the current obesity epidemic on modern dietary patterns characterized by excessive consumption of foods with a high glycemic load: in particular, processed, rapidly digestible carbohydrates. These foods cause hormonal responses that fundamentally change our metabolism, driving fat storage, weight gain, and obesity.

“Scientists claim that overeating is not the primary cause of obesity” [Science Daily]:

The USDA’s Dietary Guidelines for Americans 2020 — 2025 further tells us that losing weight “requires adults to reduce the number of calories they get from foods and beverages and increase the amount expended through physical activity.”

This approach to weight management is based on the century-old energy balance model which states that weight gain is caused by consuming more energy than we expend….

The authors of “The Carbohydrate-Insulin Model: A Physiological Perspective on the Obesity Pandemic,” a perspective published in The American Journal of Clinical Nutrition, point to fundamental flaws in the energy balance model, arguing that an alternate model,

  • the carbohydrate-insulin model,

better explains obesity and weight gain. Moreover, the carbohydrate-insulin model points the way to more effective, long-lasting weight management strategies.

In contrast to the energy balance model, the carbohydrate-insulin model makes a bold claim: overeating isn’t the main cause of obesity. Instead,

 

the carbohydrate-insulin model lays much of the blame for the current obesity epidemic on modern dietary patterns characterized by

excessive consumption of foods with a high glycemic load: in particular, processed, rapidly digestible carbohydrates. These foods cause hormonal responses that fundamentally change our metabolism, driving fat storage, weight gain, and obesity.

 

“Transport noise linked to increased risk of dementia, study finds” [Guardian]. 

 “Now an “impressive” study involving two million adults, conducted over more than a decade, has concluded that people living in areas with transport noise face a higher risk of dementia, especially Alzheimer’s disease. The findings were published in the BMJ. Researchers investigated the association between long-term residential exposure to road traffic and railway noise and the risk of dementia among two million adults aged over 60 and living in Denmark between 2004 and 2017. The level of exposure at the most- and least-exposed sides of buildings was estimated for every residential address in the country. After taking account of potentially influential factors related to residents and their neighbourhoods, the study concluded that as many as 1,216 out of the 8,475 cases of dementia registered in Denmark in 2017 could be attributed to transport noise. Of those, ‘the diagnosis in an estimated 963 patients was attributed to road traffic noise, and in 253 patients to railway noise.'”

segunda-feira, 20 de setembro de 2021

People only pay attention to new information when they want to


A new paper in the Journal of the European Economic Association, published by Oxford University Press, indicates that we tend to listen to people who tell us things we'd like to believe and ignore people who tell us things we'd prefer not to be true. As a result, like-minded people tend to make one another more biased when they exchange beliefs with one another.

While it would reasonable to think that people form decisions based on evidence and experience alone, previous research has demonstrated that have "motivated beliefs;" They believe things in part because they would like such things to be true. Motivated beliefs (and the reasoning that leads to them) can generate serious biases. Motivated beliefs have been speculated to explain the proliferation of misinformation on online forums. Such beliefs may also explain . There's a great deal of objective available about financial marketplaces, yet group decision making and encouragement (e.g. the Game Stop stock performance of winter 2021) may result in bubbles and .

 

...

 

The experiment revealed that people who are pessimistic that they are in the high IQ group tend to become significantly more optimistic when matched with a more optimistic counterpart. An optimistic person is not, however, likely to change his beliefs if matched with a more pessimistic counterpart. This effect is particularly strong for people who are in the low IQ group, where it produces particularly severe biases. Overall, the results suggest that amplification occurs because people (selectively) attribute higher informational value to social signals that reinforce their pre-existing motivation to believe.

Halfway through the experiment, however, researchers gave subjects an unbiased piece of information about which IQ group subjects were in. This was highly effective at removing the biases caused by the initial exchange of beliefs. The results therefore suggest that providing unbiased, reliable sources of information may reduce motivated beliefs in settings like echo chambers and financial markets.

"This experiment supports a lot of popular suspicions about why biased beliefs might be getting worse in the age of the internet," said Ryan Oprea, one of the paper's authors. "We now get a lot of information from social media and we don't know much about the quality of the information we're getting. As a result, we're often forced to decide for ourselves how accurate various opinions and sources of information are and how much stock to put in them. Our results suggest that people resolve this quandary by assigning credibility to sources that are telling us what we'd like to hear and this can make biases due to motivated reasoning a lot worse over time."

 

Former coalmining communities are more politically disenchanted than other 'left behind' areas

 

 political engagement continues to climb in other 'left behind' areas, while in the former mining communities it drops off again after 2017.

This discontent with contemporary politics also extends to newer populist and nationalist parties. While they favored Leave in the referendum, those in coalfield communities are still less likely to vote for UKIP, the SNP or Plaid Cymru than those in other areas with similar social and economic struggles.

"It seems that the modern Left may not have lost the people in former mining communities to populism or emerging nationalist parties, but rather apathy and cynicism," said Abreu, from Cambridge's Department of Land Economy.

In addition, and contrary to cinematic depictions and public perceptions, the research didn't detect any greater sense of community cohesion in former mining neighborhoods compared to other economically depressed areas.

"It's been over thirty years since large numbers of people went underground for work, plenty of time for strong social relationships to dwindle," said co-author Dr. Calvin Jones from Cardiff Business School. "Loss of solidarity among these communities may have been compounded by austerity in recent years."

"However, it is also possible that the other deprived communities to which we compared former areas—from housing estates to rundown seaside towns—actually have higher levels of social cohesion than might be expected."

 

 

 

Social policies for the digital age, by

 

 Respondents across all countries expect automation and digitalization to transform their workplace positively, with 50+ percent majorities expecting

a better work-life balance,
a reduction of physical demands and dangers,
and a less tedious and stressful array of everyday tasks.

In Germany, however, the expectations are not quite as positive, with results for these questions more than ten percent lower than the international average.

At the same time, many respondents around the world are also fearful about

losing their jobs to machines, robots, or algorithms.

Figures vary widely across countries, with Turkish (64.9 percent) and Korean (65.5 percent) workers most often expressing fears that the likelihood of being replaced is "high" or "very high", while only 21.5 percent of Austrian and 27.5 percent of German workers share these worries.


https://phys.org/news/2021-09-social-policies-digital-age.html

COP 26, Global Warming Cascade Systemic Risks
"Systemic risks materialize as a chain, or cascade, impacting a whole system, inclusive of people, infrastructure, economy, societal systems and ecosystems.
70 experts analyzed cascading risks, as follows: “The cascading risks over which the participating experts expressed greatest concern were the interconnections between 

shifting weather patterns, resulting in 

changes to ecosystems, and 

the rise of pests and diseases, which, combined with 

heatwaves and drought, will likely drive unprecedented 

crop failure, 

food insecurity and 

migration of people. 

Subsequently, these impacts will likely result in 

increased infectious diseases 

(greater prevalence of current infectious diseases, as well as novel variants), and a

negative feedback loop compounding and amplifying each of these impacts.” (Pg. 38)

 

Cascades will likely lead to breakdown of governance due to limited food supplies and lack of income bringing on increasingly violent extremists groups, paramilitary intervention, organized violence, and conflict between people and states, all of which has already commenced.

 

What’s Up With COP26?,

 

 

https://www.counterpunch.org/2021/09/17/whats-up-with-cop26/

domingo, 19 de setembro de 2021

The Stagflation Threat Is Real, by 

        While these persistent negative supply shocks threaten to reduce potential growth, the continuation of loose monetary and fiscal policies could trigger a de-anchoring of inflation expectations. The resulting wage-price spiral would then usher in a medium-term stagflationary environment worse than the 1970s – when the debt-to-GDP ratios were lower than they are now. That is why the risk of a stagflationary debt crisis will continue to loom over the medium term.  


There is a growing consensus that the US economy’s inflationary pressures and growth challenges are attributable largely to temporary supply bottlenecks that will be alleviated in due course. But there are plenty of reasons to think the optimists will be disappointed.



 

 In fact, there are multiple factors behind this summer’s mini-stagflation. For starters, 

the Delta variant is temporarily 

    boosting production costs, 

    reducing output growth, and 

    constraining labor supply. 

Workers, many of whom are still receiving the enhanced unemployment benefits that will expire in September, are reluctant to return to the workplace, especially now that Delta is raging. And those with children may need to stay at home, owing to school closures and the lack of affordable childcare. 

 On the production side,
Delta is 

    disrupting the reopening of many service sectors and 

    throwing a monkey wrench into global supply chains, ports, and logistics systems. 

Shortages of key inputs such as semiconductors are further hampering production of cars, electronic goods, and other consumer durables, thus boosting inflation. 

 

 

For starters, there is the

     trend toward deglobalization and 

    rising protectionism, 

    the balkanization and reshoring of far-flung supply chains, and 

    the demographic aging of advanced economies and 

    key emerging markets. 

Tighter immigration restrictions are hampering migration from the poorer Global South to the richer North. The Sino-American cold war is just beginning, threatening to fragment the global economy. And climate change is already disrupting agriculture and causing spikes in food prices.  

Moreover, persistent global pandemics will inevitably lead to more national self-reliance and export controls for key goods and materials. Cyber-warfare is increasingly disrupting production, yet remains very costly to control. And the against income and wealth inequality is driving fiscal and regulatory authorities to implement policies strengthening the power of workers and labor unions, setting the stage for accelerated wage growth.

Oscar 1927 - 2019 - Writing and best picture

 


[NOTE: This award was not associated with any specific film title.]
[NOTE: "The Academy Board of Judges on merit awards for individual achievements in motion picture arts during the year ending August 1, 1928, unanimously decided that your name should be removed from the competitive classes, and that a special first award be conferred upon you for writing, acting, directing and producing The Circus. The collective accomplishments thus displayed place you in a class by yourself." (Letter from the Academy to Mr. Chaplin, dated February 19, 1929.)]
[NOTE: THIS IS NOT AN OFFICIAL NOMINATION. There were no announcements of nominations, no certificates of nomination or honorable mention, and only the winners (*) were revealed during the awards banquet on April 3, 1930.]
[NOTE: THIS IS NOT AN OFFICIAL NOMINATION. There were no announcements of nominations, no certificates of nomination or honorable mention, and only the winners (*) were revealed during the awards banquet on April 3, 1930.]
[NOTE: Mr. Nichols initially refused the award, but Academy records indicate that he was in possession of a statuette by 1949.]
[NOTE: The screen credit and award were originally credited to Ian McLellan Hunter, who was a "front" for Dalton Trumbo. On December 15, 1992, the Academy's Board of Governors voted to change the records and award Mr. Trumbo with the achievement. Ian McLellan Hunter's name was removed from the Motion Picture Story category. The Oscar was posthumously presented to Trumbo's widow on May 10, 1993.]
[NOTE: The name of the writer credited with authorship, Robert Rich, turned out to be an alias. Two decades later, the mystery was officially solved and the Academy statuette went (on May 2, 1975, presented by then Academy president Walter Mirisch) to its rightful owner, screenwriter Dalton Trumbo, blacklisted in 1956 by the industry for political affiliations. Robert Rich (who had nothing to do with the film industry) is a nephew of the King Brothers, producers of the film. They chose his name to be the alias for Dalton Trumbo on the screenplay.]
[NOTE: Though Pierre Boulle received official screen credit, it was commonly known that blacklisted writers, Michael Wilson and Carl Foreman, wrote the screenplay based on Mr. Boulle's novel (translated from the French). The Board of Governors, on December 11, 1984, voted posthumous Oscars to Wilson and Foreman and Academy records have been updated.]
[NOTE: Upon request of his widow and upon recommendation of the Writers Branch Executive Committee, the Board of Governors voted on June 22, 1993, to restore the name of Nedrick Young to the nominations and award presented to Nathan E. Douglas (Mr. Young's pseudonym during the blacklisting period).]